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This great chart from Sports Insights takes a look at margin of victory in American Football – NFL games between 2003 and 2013.

It’s a useful tool for sports bettors.

The new NFL logo went into use at the 2008 draft.

The new NFL logo went into use at the 2008 draft. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The key takeaway: Around 25% of all American Football – NFL games end with a margin of victory of either “3” or “7.” That’s a hugely disproportionate percentage of games.

From a betting perspective, this really drives home the importance of “key numbers.”

English: List of games by Pittsburgh Steelers ...

English: List of games by Pittsburgh Steelers during NFL regular season 2009, with justification (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

For example, the difference between getting 2.5 points and 3.5 points is much more significant than the difference between getting 1.5 points and 2.5 points (or, even, 7.5 points and 9.5 points).

Not all betting lines are created equal.

Here’s the chart, which Sports Insights allowed us to republished:

nfl key numbers chart

And here are the six most popular margin of victory numbers (or, “key numbers”) since 2003:

  • 3 — 15.39% of all games
  • 7 — 9.55% of all games
  • 10 — 6.14% of all games
  • 6 — 5.58% of all games
  • 4 — 5.32% of all games
  • 14 —4.79% of all games

Source: SFGate

 

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